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How much of a mineral can the world produce, and how quickly can that capacity change? This USGS outlook examines eight mineral commodities whose supply matters to modern industry, distinguishing actual production from the capacity that mines and processing facilities could potentially provide.
The report explains how production history, announced closures, new projects, financing, construction, and utilisation rates enter its estimates. Separate commodity sections compare country-level production and prospective capacity through 2029 for cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium metal, palladium, platinum, and titanium sponge. Charts make the geographical concentration of supply and the possible effects of capacity expansion easier to compare.
Elisa Alonso and colleagues published the study in 2025 as Scientific Investigations Report 2025–5021. It provides a documented supply outlook and methodology for readers interested in industrial economics, mineral markets, and resource planning. The original PDF retains its charts, references, and all photographic credit and licence notices.
Elisa Alonso; Amanda Sarah Brioche; Ruth Schulte; Loyd M. Trimmer III; Ji-Eun Kim; Andrew L. Gulley; David Pineault. U.S. Geological Survey, 2025. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255021. Original agency, author, and photograph credits retained.
Cover photographs (unchanged composition; display size adjusted): A. Gas discharge spectrum for helium. Photograph credit to Wikimedia Commons user Alchemist-hp (https://commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/File:Helium_discharge_tube.jpg). This photograph is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). B. Lithium crystals. Photograph credit to Fan Haocheng (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lithium_crystals.jpg). This photograph is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/deed.en) and was not modified. C. A titanium crystal bar of high purity (99.995 percent) made by an iodide process in the USSR. Photograph credit to Wikimedia Commons user Alchemist-hp (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Titan-crystal_bar.JPG). This photograph is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en). D. Solid gallium, spiral melted merged with another piece. Photograph credit is to the “Images of Elements” website (http://images-of-elements.com/gallium.php). This photograph is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). E. A chunk of vapor-deposited magnesium crystals. Photograph credit to Warut Roonguthai (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Magnesium_crystals.jpg). This photograph is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en). F. Cobalt is a ferromagnetic, ductile metal that is similar to iron but much rarer. Photograph credit is to the “Images of Elements” website (https://images-of-elements.com/cobalt.php). This photograph is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). G. Palladium crystal, about 1 gram. Photograph credit is to the “Images of Elements” website (https://images-of-elements.com/ palladium.php). This photograph is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (https://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/3.0/). H. Platinum nugget. Photograph credit is to Rob Lavinsky, iRocks.com, (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Platinum-t07-103b.jpg). This photograph is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en).