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This report develops equations for estimating flood discharges on unregulated rural streams in Vermont. It combines records from streamgages with characteristics of their drainage basins to estimate flows associated with a range of annual exceedance probabilities.
The analysis uses data through the 2023 water year and explains the role of drainage area, wetland area, and precipitation in the regression equations. It also describes methods for combining streamgage results with regional estimates and transferring information to nearby ungaged locations.
Readers will find a technical explanation of the statistical approach, its geographic scope, and the uncertainty attached to different estimates. The report includes methods, results, references, and supporting material. It also explains how the equations relate to StreamStats, providing context for their use without requiring the reader to mistake modelled probabilities for predictions of a particular flood.
Scott A. Olson. Estimating Flood Discharges at Selected Annual Exceedance Probabilities for Unregulated, Rural Streams in Vermont, 2023. U.S. Geological Survey, 2025. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255088. Public domain U.S. Government publication. Original agency, author and photograph credits retained.